US grants India temporary waiver to buy Russian oil

Global equity markets finished lower on Thursday as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East unsettled investors and pushed energy prices sharply higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6 percent, the S&P 500 declined 0.6 percent and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.3 percent. Weakness was most evident in consumer staples and materials, sectors that are particularly sensitive to rising input costs. Oil markets remained a key driver of sentiment after West Texas Intermediate crude surged above 79 dollars per barrel, its highest level since mid 2024, amid continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation of conflict involving Iran and Israel has increased concerns about supply interruptions in a route that carries roughly one fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Reflecting the heightened uncertainty, the CBOE Volatility Index rose sharply while the US dollar strengthened as investors sought the stability of the world’s primary reserve currency.

Bond yields also moved higher, with the ten year US Treasury yield rising to around 4.14 percent as investors reassessed the outlook for interest rates and inflation. Higher oil prices have lifted inflation expectations, leading markets to push the timing of the next Federal Reserve rate cut further into the future. Economic data pointed to a labour market that remains stable but gradually cooling, with initial jobless claims holding steady at 213,000 while continuing claims edged up to 1.87 million, suggesting some workers are taking longer to find new employment. The steady pace of layoffs alongside slower job creation indicates that the labour market may be stabilising even as broader economic uncertainty increases.

Latest market and economic update

• Asian equities were mixed on Friday amid escalating Middle East tensions and surging oil prices. South Korea’s KOSPI fell 1%, Japan’s Nikkei edged up 0.6%, while China’s Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 slipped. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 2%. Weekly declines were steep, with South Korea and Japan facing nearly 12% and 6% losses, respectively.

• US equity futures were little changed overnight after Wall Street extended its sell-off. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures edged up about 0.1%, with Dow futures up 0.2%. Investors remain cautious amid Middle East tensions and rising oil prices. Attention now turns to Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report expected to guide rate-cut expectations.

• European equities closed sharply lower as escalating Middle East tensions and rising energy costs weighed on markets. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 1.7% and the STOXX Europe 600 lost 1.4%. Banks including Santander, UniCredit and Deutsche Bank were down, while industrials Siemens, Safran and logistics group DHL Group also fell on concerns over higher energy and shipping costs.

• The US dollar held broadly steady in Asian trading, poised for its strongest weekly gain in over a year as Middle East tensions drove safe-haven demand. The dollar index is up about 1.4% this week. The euro traded around $1.1621, under pressure as markets weigh rising inflation risks and slower expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

• Oil prices fell in Asian trading after five sessions of gains as traders took profits and the US considered measures to curb rising prices, including allowing Indian refiners to buy Russian crude. Brent slipped to around $84 a barrel and WTI near $79, though both remain on track for weekly gains of more than 17% amid Middle East supply concerns.

• US President Donald Trump said he must personally approve Iran’s next supreme leader, rejecting likely successor Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ali Khamenei. Trump said the US should help shape the choice to avoid future conflict, comparing his desired role to Washington’s involvement in leadership changes in Venezuela.

Equities on the move

The following companies experienced moves in their share price driven by analyst ratings, quarterly earnings, or other news:

• The Trump administration is drafting rules requiring licences for global exports of advanced AI chips from Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices. The proposal would expand restrictions and place the US Commerce Department at the centre of approvals, with stricter reviews and possible conditions for large deployments by purchasing countries.

• Shares of online travel agencies surged yesterday after reports that OpenAI is scaling back plans to enable direct bookings through ChatGPT, easing fears of disintermediation. Companies like Expedia, Booking Holdings and Tripadvisor benefited, as AI will now focus on third-party app checkouts, allowing agencies to remain key intermediaries in travel planning.

• Apple’s iPhone shipments in China fell about 37% year-on-year in January, following strong demand around the iPhone 17 launch. UBS estimates total smartphone sell-in dropped 16% YoY, with iPhones’ market share declining to 11%. Apple also launched the lower-priced MacBook Neo to expand in the price-sensitive PC market.

• Oracle Corp plans to cut thousands of jobs amid a cash crunch from a large AI data centre expansion, Bloomberg reported. Reductions, affecting multiple divisions and roles less needed due to AI, may begin this month. Hiring freezes are under review, as Oracle ramps up cloud and AI capabilities to compete with Amazon and Microsoft.

• The Pentagon labelled AI lab Anthropic a “supply-chain risk,” barring government contractors from using its Claude technology in military projects, including in Iran. The restriction applies only to Pentagon contracts. Anthropic plans to challenge the move, while non-military collaborations with Microsoft, Amazon, and other clients can continue.

• Marvell Technology forecast first-quarter revenue of around $2.40 billion, exceeding Wall Street estimates of $2.27 billion, reflecting strong demand for custom semiconductors in AI-powered data centres. Shares rose about 15% in after-hours trading. Marvell and Broadcom supply cloud companies with tailored chips as hyperscalers seek alternatives to Nvidia’s general-purpose AI processors.

• DHL Group gave a cautious 2026 outlook, expecting EBIT above €6.2 billion amid a weak macroeconomic environment. CEO Tobias Meyer cited geopolitical volatility and Middle East disruptions affecting air and sea routes. Q4 operating profit fell 1.3%, with freight forwarding earnings down 36%, while road operations faced weak European demand.

• The Trade Desk shares surged 20% on Thursday after CEO Jeffrey Terry Green disclosed purchasing 6 million shares worth $148 million between March 2 and March 4. The purchases coincided with reports that the company is in talks with OpenAI to sell ads on its AI platform, offering a potential growth catalyst amid steep recent share declines.

• Crypto investor Michael Terpin said Bitcoin could fall towards $50,000 during the current correction, with a deeper drop to about $40,000 possible if negative macro events occur. He expects a gradual recovery later, with prices potentially reaching $80,000–$100,000 by year-end before stronger gains later in the decade.

• Bank of America reinstated coverage of payment companies, citing steady transaction growth and rising digital payments. Visa and Mastercard received Buy ratings, while Block Inc. was also rated Buy and PayPal Holdings Neutral. Buy-now-pay-later firms Affirm Holdings and Klarna were rated Buy, supported by adoption growth and expanding digital commerce.

• Shares of CoreWeave fell after Bernstein gave an underperform rating and $56 target, citing competitive risks. Analyst Madison Rezaei noted that while demand for computing capacity has helped the company, hyperscalers may pursue direct GPU cloud offerings, potentially cannibalising CoreWeave’s market as capacity grows and competition rises.

Upcoming data and events

Key US economic releases on Friday include February’s nonfarm payrolls, expected at 59,000 versus 130,000 previously, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are forecast up 0.3% monthly. Other notable data include retail sales for January and the Baker Hughes oil rig count.