Home > Blog > Trader talk > Trader Talk: An Analysis of the Markets this Morning

Good morning,

Markets are called higher this morning. This is what's happening today:

  • The Bank of Japan kept its stimulus programs and key rate unchanged;
  • Samsung Electronics Co.’s earnings beat estimates (profits doubled)
  • Spain's finance minister to the market that Spain does not need bailout money;
  • Data in the U.S. may show the unemployment rate climbed to 8.2% from 8.1%;
  • Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said investors are skeptical the central bank will hold inflation within its 2% goal;
  • 10-year Italiandebt is yielding 5.122%, 10-year Spain is yielding 5.879% and 10-year Portuguese debt is yielding 8.567%;
  • Brent is trading at $111.90/barrel;
  • Apple closed the session at $666.80

Spain's finance minister yesterday said that Spain does not need the bailout money from the EU. This is not what the markets want to be hearing. This will just create further uncertainty which leads to greater volatility in the markets. But listening carefully to what the finance minister had to say it is important to highlight the fact that the statement was made NOT because the Spanish don't need the bailout money but because with the restrictions and conditions required by the ESM to apply for the bailout, Spain's position will remain the same as it is today. This just shows you that Spain's problem will not be solved overnight. What we know however is that if Spain had to follow Greece's footsteps and go through the same form of bailout, the cost would be between E450-E650 billion which is unsustainable for the EU.

Moving on to the US, today the job numbers are out for the month of September. Forecasters anticipate the September unemployment rate will rise to 8.2% from 8.1% in August and the economy will add 115,000 new jobs. The jobless rate has fluctuated between 8.1% and 8.3% since the beginning of the year. Still, a clear improvement or marked decline in employment that breaks the months-long trend of middling jobs reports would probably dominate news coverage for several days and influence campaign rhetoric for the final month of the presidential contest.

Still, a clear improvement or marked decline in employment that breaks the months-long trend of middling jobs reports would probably dominate news coverage for several days and influence the campaign for the final month of the presidential contest. Romney has blamed Obama’s stewardship of the economy for persistent high joblessness as the nation recovers from the worst recession since the Great Depression. Obama has emphasized progress on the economy and pleaded for more time for his policies to work.

Unemployment rates have remained at or above 8% since February 2009, the longest stretch since monthly unemployment figures were first compiled in 1948. No president has won re-election since World War II with an Election Day unemployment rate higher than 7.2%, the jobless rate when Ronald Reagan won a second term in 1984.

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Good day and happy trading!

Kristian Camenzuli