Home > Blog > Trader talk > Trader Talk: An Analysis of the Markets this Morning

Good morning,

Markets are called higher this morning. This is what's happening today:

  • Asian stocks, oil and the won climbed on speculation global central banks will extend monetary easing and as South Korea reported the fastest economic growth in two years. The yuan reached a 19-year high and gold rallied;
  • ECB’s Joerg Asmussen and BOE’s Andrew Haldane speak at Economist conference in London;
  • ECB’s Vitor Constancio and Benoit Coeure speak in Brussels;
  • German govt releases new macroeconomic forecast. Sweden sells bonds.

Companies in Europe reporting results today (EARNINGS All times CET, estimates where available):

• Volvo (VOLVB SS) 7:20am, 1Q adj. EPS SEK0.46

• Bayer (BAYN GR) 7:30am, 1Q adj. EPS EU1.78

• Unilever (UNA NA) 8am, 1Q sales EU12.46b

• AstraZeneca (AZN LN) 8am, 1Q adj. EPS $1.37

• Electrolux (ELUXB SS) 8am, 1Q adj. EPS SEK1.83

• British American Tobacco (BATS LN) 8am, 1Q sales

• Banco Santander (SAN SM) pre-mkt, 1Q adj. net EU1.27b

• Nobel Biocare (NOBN SW) 6:45am, 1Q adj. net EU11.7m

• Software (SOW GR) 7am, 1Q GAAP EPS EU0.33

• Rhoen Klinikum (RHK GR) 7am, 1Q GAAP EPS EU0.17

• Technip (TEC FP) 7am, 1Q adj. EPS EU1.04

• AtoS (ATO FP) 7am, 1Q sales

• Imerys (NK FP) 7am, 1Q sales EU946m

• Thales (HO FP) 7am, 1Q sales

• Oriflame (ORI SS) 7:15am, 1Q adj. net EU31.2m

• Pernod-Ricard (RI FP) 7:30am, 3Q sales EU1.81b

• Randstad (RAND NA) 7:30am, 1Q adj. EPS EU0.34

• Aixtron (AIXA GR) 7:30am, 1Q adj. loss-shr EU0.12

• Societe BIC (BB FP) 8am, 1Q adj. net EU55.7m

• Kesko (KESBV FH) 8am, 1Q adj. EPS EU0.096

• SSAB (SSABA SS) 8am, 1Q adj. loss-shr SEK0.44

• TGS Nopec (TGS NO) 8am, 1Q adj./GAAP EPS EU0.63

• Fortum (FUM1V FH) 8am, 1Q adj. EPS EU0.48

• Novozymes (NZYMB DC) 8am, 1Q GAAP EPS EU1.71

• MTU Aero (MTX GR) 8am, 1Q adj. EPS EU1.03

• UPM-Kymmene (UPM1V FH) 8:30am, 1Q adj. EPS EU0.16

• Banco de Sabadell (SAB SM) 8:30am, 1Q adj. net EU20.4m

• JM (JM SS) TBD, 1Q adj. EPS SEK3.07

• Dassault Systemes (DSY FP) 8am, 1Q adj. EPS EU0.75

• CaixaBank (CABK SM) TBD, 1Q GAAP net EU149.3m

• Croda (CRDA LN) 8am, 1Q sales GBP290m

• Banque Cantonale Vaudoise (BCVN SW) 8am, 1Q sales

• Lonza (LONN VX) 8am, 1Q sales

• Filtrona (FLTR LN) 8am, 1Q sales

• Essilor (EI FP) 7:30am, 1Q sales EU1.3b

• Gemalto (GTO FP) 8am, 1Q sales EU536.8m

• Cobham (COB LN) 8am, 1Q sales

• Taylor Wimpey (TW/ LN) 8am, 1Q sales

• Admiral (ADM LN) 8am, 1Q sales

• Kazakhmys (KAZ LN) 8am, 1Q sales

• Polymetal (POLY LN) 8am, 1Q sales, production

• Amer Sports (AMEAS FH) noon, 1Q adj. EPS EU0.17

• Telenet (TNET BB) 5:45pm, 1Q GAAP EPS EU0.21

• Ferrovial (FER SM) post-mkt, 1Q adj. net EU50.4m (2 est.)

• Vinci (DG FP) aftermkt, 1Q sales EU8.15b

• PPR (PP FP) aftermkt, 1Q sales EU2.42b

• St-Gobain (SGO FP) aftermkt, 1Q sales EU9.68b

This morning i'd like to share with you a report written by Deutsche Bank Analysts which came out on Barclays after the results .

Estimates broadly unchanged, TP remains 380p, Buy

Barclays reported DB adjusted PBT of £2,275m, 14% ahead of our estimate and 2% shy of a consensus which we think had largely failed to adjust for the US ibank reporting season. Two thirds of the beat to our expectations came from the investment bank which performed particularly well. But, this being the case, our estimates for Barclays are left broadly unchanged, with our SOTP-derived target price remaining 380p. With 28% upside to this price, Buy.

The Investment Bank was particularly impressive

The Investment Bank performed especially well, with income up 1% YoY (in line with best in class to report so far) and +34% QoQ. FICC was down just 6% YoY, Equities & Prime Services were up 19% and Inv. Banking rose 8%. Adj. IB profits beat DBe by 15% and cons by 10%. Comp/NoI was 41% from 43% YoY. On the analyst call management reiterated plans to bring the comp/NOI ratio to 35% by 2015, a significant improvement in shareholder returns if achieved.

Restructuring in early stages, playing the long game

Business momentum is good (esp. IB). The ING UK acquisition isn’t fully in 1Q13 profits. Neither are cost benefits of £514m in restructuring costs incurred in 1Q13 (e.g. a 27% fall in Europe RBB headcount). To the negative, not all earnings in businesses up for ‘exit’ or ‘transition’ under Transform have left the P&L. A great deal of restructuring from here is process-driven & detail oriented and perhaps slower to show up in the P&L than blunt exits. But we think the strategy is sound and that Barclays will continue to take share. Management’s reiterated targets imply 2015 EPS of 58p, putting the stock on 5.1x.

The share is as cheap as it looks, retain Buy

Basel 3 core tier 1 at 8.4% reported ahead of our forecast, up 20bps QoQ despite a 15bps drag from FX RWA inflation. Barclays declared a 1Q13 dividend of 1p, unchanged YoY, which confers some comfort on capital. With broadly unchanged estimates we have the stock trading at 0.85x TNAV and 6.4x our 2014 adj. EPS. Our SOTP-derived TP remains 380p. Buy.

For more information on Barclays or other stocks and bonds we follow, contact our offices on 25688688.

Good day and happy trading!

Kristian Camenzuli