Trader Talk: An Analysis of the Markets this Morning

Good morning,

Markets are called to open higher this morning. This is what's happening today:

• Vodafone’s Verizon Payday Seen Leaving U.K. Tax Man Empty Handed

• ECB’s Nowotny Says Rate Cut Reaction to ‘Very Weak’ Economy

• Siemens CEO’s Fourth Forecast Cut Prompts Leadership Questions

• Asian Stocks Outside Japan Advance on U.S. Jobless Data, ECB

• Scandlines Owners Said to Get Three Bids for Ferry Operator

• Dollar Snaps Biggest Advance in 2 Weeks vs Euro Before Jobs

• ING U.S. Unit Climbs Almost 7% After IPO Prices Below Range

• RBS Chairman Wants to Begin Stake Sale by Mid-2014: Sky

• Hugo Boss Shares Offered at EU89.25-EU90.50 in Placing: Terms

• CSN Said to Be Leading Bidder for ThyssenKrupp Americas Plants

• Vallourec 1Q Net EU35m Vs Est. EU35.5m

• Audi $1.3b Mexico SUV Plant Aimed at Unseating BMW

Companies in Europe reporting results today:

• BNP Paribas (BNP FP) 7am, 1Q adj. net EU1.54b

• Belgacom (BELG BB) 7am, 1Q adj. net EU155.5m

• Air France-KLM (AF FP) 7:15am, 1Q adj. net loss EU518.4m

• Adidas (ADS GR) 7:30am, 1Q net EU298.5m

• Sky Deutschland (SKYD GR) 7:30am, 1Q adj. loss-shr EU0.06

• Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS LN) 8am, 1Q pretax GBP1.08b

• Continental (CON GR) 8:30am, 1Q GAAP net EU350.3m

• CGG Veritas (CGG FP) 7:30am, 1Q adj. EPS EU0.20

• Wereldhave (WHA NA) 8am, 1Q adj. EPS EU0.96 (2 est.)

• TDC (TDC DC) 8am, 1Q GAAP net DKK658.6m

• Smurfit Kappa (SKG ID) 8am, 1Q EPS EU0.23 (2 est.)

• NCC (NCCA SS) TBD, 1Q loss SEK166.4m

• GN Store Nord (GN DC) 8am, 1Q adj. net DKK132.4m

• Mapfre (MAP SM) pre-mkt, 1Q adj. net EU251.3m

• Boliden (BOL SS) 8am, 1Q EPS SEK2.13

• Telefonica Deutschland (O2D GR) 7:30am, 1Q adj. net EU8.87m

• Mondi (MNDI LN) 8am, 1Q sales, IMS

• Man Group (EMG LN) 8am, 1Q sales, IMS

• Veolia Environnement (VIE FP) 7:30am, 1Q sales EU5.84b

• Direct Line Insurance (DLG LN) 8am, 1Q sales, IMS

BNP report restults today. Deutsche Bank are bullish on the bank with a price target of E51. This is what they have to say about BNP. We think BNPP is particularly well positioned in the current environment. The high asset quality offers some earnings protection to the downside should the macro environment further deteriorate, and we even see some potential upside risk to earnings if BNPP over-delivers on its cost cutting plan (as it did in previous plans). We find the comfortable solvency of BNPP is a highly attractive feature and expect BNPP to redistribute part of this excess capital to shareholders through dividend, offering a good dividend yield. We think the share overhang risk from Belgium is limited as long as BNPP shares trade below E58/share and we estimate this would anyway represent less than 35 days of trading. We rate the shares Buy.

For more information on BNP or other stocks and bonds we follow, contact our offices on 25688688.

Good day and happy trading!

Kristian Camenzuli