The U.S. Supreme Court rules against global tariffs

US equities finished higher last Friday, supported by gains in technology and retail shares after the Supreme Court of the United States ruled 6–3 that President Donald Trump had exceeded his authority in using emergency powers to impose tariffs. The decision initially introduced legal uncertainty, particularly around the potential refund of previously collected duties, but investors focused instead on the administration’s swift move to pursue alternative tariff mechanisms. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7% to 22,851.1, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 6,902.2, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.4% to 49,592.5. Bond prices and the US dollar weakened, while yields edged higher amid concerns that potential tariff refunds could widen the federal deficit.

For the week as a whole, markets were broadly resilient despite mixed economic data and rising geopolitical noise. US GDP growth for the fourth quarter was revised down to 1.4% annualised, while core PCE inflation surprised on the upside, underscoring the Federal Reserve’s policy dilemma and tempering expectations for near-term rate cuts. Oil prices remained firm, though still near the lower end of their five-year range, and attention increasingly turned to upcoming earnings from Nvidia as a key catalyst for technology sentiment. Although sector rotation continued, with industrials and consumer discretionary attracting interest, the overall tone remained constructive, supported by steady corporate earnings expectations and confidence that alternative legal avenues will keep tariff levels elevated.

Latest market and economic update

• Asian markets were mixed on Monday amid uncertainty over US tariffs. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped 2.7% on tech and auto gains, while South Korea’s KOSPI hit a record high, supported by chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Elsewhere, trading was subdued, with Australia weaker and Singapore modestly higher.

• US equity futures point to a softer open after President Donald Trump said he will raise temporary global tariffs to 15% under an alternative legal provision. S&P 500 Futures, Nasdaq 100 Futures and Dow Jones Futures all moved lower, reflecting trade policy uncertainty and caution ahead of key earnings from Nvidia later this week.

• European equities closed sharply higher on Friday, with the STOXX 50 up 1.1% at 6,124 and the STOXX 600 rising 0.8%, supported by the US Supreme Court ruling against Donald Trump’s tariffs. Luxury shares LVMH and Hermes, lenders Intesa Sanpaolo and ING, and industrial Air Liquide led the gains, while PMI data indicated stronger-than-expected Eurozone economic activity.

• The US dollar weakened in Asian trade as renewed tariff uncertainty unsettled investors and revived the “sell America” narrative. The euro climbed 0.4% to $1.1826, while the dollar also fell against the yen and Swiss franc. Shifting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over fiscal risks added further downward pressure on the currency.

• Oil prices fell more than 1% in Asian trade, pausing last week’s rally as investors assessed renewed US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva and fresh trade uncertainty after President Donald Trump raised global tariffs to 15%. Brent and WTI had surged on conflict fears, but diplomatic optimism and demand concerns weighed on sentiment.

Equities on the move

The following companies experienced moves in their share price driven by analyst ratings, quarterly earnings, or other news:

• Samsung Electronics shares surged over 3% today to a record 197,600 won, extending last week’s gains after the company began mass production of advanced high-bandwidth memory (HBM4). The milestone positions Samsung as the first producer of HBM4 and the exclusive memory supplier for Nvidia’s next-generation AI processors, benefiting from strong AI-driven demand.

• OpenAI has revised its long-term financial plan, cutting total compute spending to $600 billion through 2030, down from previous $1.4 trillion targets, while projecting $280 billion in revenue. The move follows strong 2025 results, a $100 billion-plus funding round involving Nvidia, SoftBank and Amazon, and record user growth, as the company sharpens focus amid intensifying AI competition.

• CoreWeave shares dropped 8% on Friday after reports that Blue Owl Capital could not secure third-party financing for a $4 billion Pennsylvania data centre to be occupied by CoreWeave. Lenders cited CoreWeave’s B+ credit rating as a concern. Blue Owl said construction is ongoing, fully funded, on schedule, and within budget, though debt details remain uncertain.

• UBS maintains an Attractive view on US equities, forecasting the S&P 500 to reach 7,700 by December 2026, citing profit growth, supportive Federal Reserve policy, and AI rollout. Earnings momentum remains strong, though IT and Communication Services face risks from heavy AI capex, prompting sector downgrades to Neutral.

• Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of GE Aerospace with an Overweight rating and $425 target, citing underestimated long-term free cash flow and pricing power. The bank highlighted durable services growth, strong balance sheet, high barriers to entry, and potential multiple expansion, projecting free cash flow rising to $13.5 billion by 2030.

• HSBC cut Walmart to Hold, citing a “surprisingly weak” outlook despite solid quarterly results. Fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.75–$2.85 and Q1 forecasts below Wall Street estimates reflect uncertainty from currency, tariffs, and global factors. Shares fell below $1 trillion market cap, though up over 10% year-to-date.

Upcoming data and events

This week's market focus will be on Nvidia’s earnings as a bellwether for global AI demand, alongside US economic data including producer prices, housing, consumer confidence, and regional Fed indicators. Europe will release inflation and GDP data, while in Asia, China and South Korea set policy rates, Japan reports industrial output, and Australia, Singapore, and Hong Kong publish inflation and GDP figures.