Tech gains ahead of Nvidia results

Major equity indices finished solidly higher on Tuesday as investor sentiment towards artificial intelligence and large cap technology showed early signs of stabilising after recent volatility. Advanced Micro Devices rallied roughly 8% on news of a multiyear partnership with Meta, while International Business Machines rebounded following a sharp prior session decline. NVIDIA, which represents a significant weight within the S&P 500, rose modestly ahead of its earnings release. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.76%, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1%, and global equities also moved higher as enthusiasm around new AI integrations from Anthropic helped offset lingering concerns that heavy capital spending may pressure margins before profits fully materialise.

At the same time, markets continued to assess evolving trade policy following a ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States striking down the administration’s emergency tariffs. Although US Customs and Border Protection implemented a revised 10% global tariff, below the previously signalled 15% rate, uncertainty remains around the future direction of policy and potential reinstatement efforts. Government bonds benefited from recent safe haven demand, leaving the 10 year US Treasury yield near 4.03%, while oil prices hovered close to seven month highs amid persistent US Iran tensions. Currency markets were relatively contained, with the dollar mixed, as investors balanced policy risks against resilient economic data and expectations of steady corporate earnings growth.

Latest market and economic update

• Most Asian markets advanced on Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI hitting record highs, driven by strength in technology shares and exporters. Australia’s ASX 200 rose on Woolworths and major mining gains despite hot inflation, while China, Hong Kong and India also recorded broad equity strength.

• US equity index futures were little changed overnight, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 steady and Dow Jones Industrial Average near flat as investors awaited NVIDIA Corporation earnings for guidance on AI demand. In after hours trade, HP Inc. fell 6% and Workday Inc. dropped 8% after weak forecasts, while chipmakers remained in focus following Advanced Micro Devices’s rally.

• European equities edged higher on Tuesday, with the STOXX 50 up 0.1% to 6,122 and the STOXX 600 rising 0.3% to 630. Gains were led by AI-linked shares ASML and Infineon, up 1.1% and 1.8%, and auto makers BMW, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz, while banking and software shares, including Santander, SAP, and Adyen, declined.

• The U.S. dollar slipped this morning, easing below 97.8 on the Dollar Index after President Trump offered no changes to his tariff policies. Against the euro, USD/EUR traded at 1.1797, as markets balanced trade uncertainty with steady Fed guidance. Investors still price in about three 25-basis-point rate cuts later this year amid inflation risks.

• Oil prices hovered near seven-month highs on Wednesday amid rising U.S.–Iran tensions and the threat of supply disruption. Brent crude rose 0.6% to $71.20 and WTI crude gained 0.6% to $66.01 per barrel. Markets remained sensitive to upcoming U.S.–Iran talks, potential military risks, and large U.S. inventory gains reported by the API.

• In his State of the Union address, President Trump highlighted falling inflation, mortgage rates and gas prices, alongside booming stock markets, oil production, construction, factory jobs and foreign investment. He emphasised economic strength while largely omitting ongoing price pressures, presenting a positive outlook aimed at reassuring voters ahead of November’s midterm elections.

Equities on the move

The following companies experienced moves in their share price driven by analyst ratings, quarterly earnings, or other news:

• HSBC beat full-year profit expectations, reporting 2025 pretax profit of $29.91 billion, boosted by wealth and transaction banking despite $4.9 billion in restructuring and impairment charges. Excluding notable items, pretax profit rose to $36.62 billion. Revenue increased 4%, Q4 profit surged to $6.8 billion, and a $0.45 per share dividend was declared.

• MercadoLibre reported a mixed quarter, with fourth-quarter net profit falling 12.5% to $559 m and missing analysts’ expectations, as credit and logistics investments weighed on margins. Revenue jumped about 45% to roughly $8.8 bn, driven by strong Brazil and Mexico sales. Shares initially rose but later dropped over 6% in post-market trading.

• Cava Group forecast 2026 same-store sales above Wall Street estimates, driven by strong demand for its Mediterranean bowls, pitas and salads. Shares rose 8% in after-hours trading following a surprise quarterly sales increase. Higher commodity and tariff-related costs weigh on margins, which are expected at 23.7–24.2%, slightly below 2025’s 24.4% level.

• First Solar forecast 2026 sales below analyst expectations, citing higher prices from additional tariffs on foreign panels, sending shares down nearly 14% after hours. Weak U.S. residential demand, high interest rates and policy uncertainty weigh on the sector. Quarterly net sales rose 11% to $1.68 bn, with net income of $4.84 per share.

• Hims & Hers Health forecasted first-quarter revenue below expectations, citing regulatory scrutiny of its weight-loss business and international expansion costs. BTIG downgraded the shares, highlighting slowing growth and litigation risks, while Leerink and Barclays noted uncertainty around GLP-1 products, with volatility expected as investors evaluate fiscal 2026 guidance.

• Advanced Micro Devices shares rose 9% following a multi-year partnership with Meta to deploy AMD Instinct GPUs and 6th Gen EPYC CPUs for AI infrastructure, scaling up to 6 gigawatts. The agreement includes 160 million warrants and is expected to drive multi-year revenue growth, strengthen AMD’s AI position, and boost non-GAAP earnings per share.

• Software shares stabilised on Tuesday as partnerships with Anthropic eased fears of near-term disruption. Salesforce, DocuSign, Intuit, and Thomson Reuters all gained, while the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF rose 2%. Anthropic introduced 10 new plug-ins supporting enterprise workflows, emphasising collaboration with existing software rather than replacing legacy systems.

• PayPal shares rose for a second session amid takeover speculation, with Stripe reportedly interested in acquiring all or part of PayPal, including its Braintree unit. Analysts noted the potential deal could strengthen Stripe’s consumer presence, expand payment volume, and position both firms in the growing stablecoin market.

• Short-seller Citron Research initiated a position against SanDisk, citing cyclical pressures in the memory market, intensifying competition from Samsung, and Western Digital’s recent share sales as warning signs. The firm argued SanDisk, viewed like NVIDIA, lacks a moat and is vulnerable to margin pressure, predicting share declines as the market normalises.

• HSBC said software will remain the main vehicle for AI adoption in large enterprises, as foundation models cannot replace complex, high-fidelity platforms. Analysts highlighted incumbents’ reliability, intellectual property, and embedded AI agents as key advantages. Established enterprise software vendors are best positioned to monetise AI, with 2026 marking the start of commercialisation.

• Yardeni Research cautioned that AI, including large language models, lacks true understanding and is more likely to augment productivity than eliminate jobs. While equity markets react to AI fears, Yardeni expects a constructive tone from Nvidia’s earnings. The firm also highlighted ongoing market rotation, international equity shifts, and rising gold prices amid AI and tariff uncertainties.

• UBS increased allocations in Chinese technology shares, citing strong earnings, attractive valuations and AI advancements likely to boost 2026 returns. Analysts highlighted rising capital expenditure, emerging AI startups and resilient gaming companies, while trimming positions in some education and e-commerce shares, reflecting optimism for China’s long-term tech and AI growth.

• Morgan Stanley upgraded Booking Holdings to Overweight with a $5,500 price target, citing its strong position in online travel despite AI-driven tools. The bank highlighted Booking’s ability to capture traveller data, maintain leading inventory, and convert traffic into high-margin direct business, asserting OTAs will remain central to the sector’s long-term structure.

• Barclays downgraded Rio Tinto to “equal weight,” cutting its price target to 6,600p due to near-term iron ore weakness and tight valuation. Analysts highlighted limited copper growth, constrained asset-sale prospects, and falling margins. Forecasts for 2026–27 EBITDA and EPS were lowered, while Barclays continues to favour Anglo American and Glencore.

• Wells Fargo upgraded Qualcomm to Equal Weight, raising its price target to $150, citing potential $5–7 billion annual revenue from AI data centre chips by 2027. The brokerage highlighted Qualcomm’s AI200 and AI250 platforms, partnerships with Adobe and HUMAIN, acquisitions of Alphawave and Ventana, and wafer allocation at TSMC as key drivers for future data centre growth.

• Rubrik was initiated with a Buy rating and $65 target at DA Davidson, highlighting its leadership in backup, recovery, and cyber resilience. Despite a 30% year-to-date decline, the firm is well positioned to capture growing cloud, SaaS, and DSPM markets, with security now over 40% of subscription revenue and AI-driven products supporting future growth.

• JPMorgan upgraded Domino’s Pizza to Overweight with a $450 price target, citing steady U.S. market growth, a resilient franchise model, and efficient delivery network. The bank highlighted international expansion in China and India, low-cost operations, and consistent share gains. Promotions and menu innovations are expected to support continued growth and investor appeal.

Upcoming data and events

Today's key economic data include Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence for March and U.S. MBA mortgage applications, purchase and refinance indices, plus EIA crude, gasoline and distillate stock changes. Major corporate earnings featured NVIDIA Q4 2026, Lowe’s Q4 2025, and Iberdrola.