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General market commentary
Equities posted strong gains in a holiday-shortened U.S. trading session, buoyed by a better-than-expected June labour report. The S&P 500 and Dow each rose 0.8% on the day, while the Nasdaq gained 1.0%. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 2.0%, the Dow added 0.7%, and the Nasdaq outperformed with a 3.5% gain. Despite the robust economic data, traders trimmed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, now pricing in 51 basis points of easing—down from 65 basis points the day before. Treasury yields moved higher in response, with the 2-year yield up 10 basis points and the 10-year yield rising 6 basis points. The trade-weighted U.S. dollar also strengthened, gaining 0.5% on the day as investors reacted to resilient data and shifting interest rate expectations.
Markets appeared encouraged by continued strength in the labour market, even as the path to near-term rate cuts narrowed. Headline payrolls rose by 147,000 in June, alongside upward revisions to previous months and an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. However, that decline was partly due to reduced labour force participation, and private-sector hiring was relatively subdued at 74,000. Still, the report suggests no abrupt economic slowdown, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance. A rate cut in July now looks unlikely, with attention turning to a potential move in September. On the corporate side, shares of Nvidia rose over 1.0%, lifting its market capitalisation close to $4 trillion. Meanwhile, Tripadvisor surged 16.5% after news of activist investor involvement, and Datadog jumped 15.0% following its inclusion in the S&P 500—adding further strength to a broadly upbeat week.
Latest market and economic update
Asian equities were mostly subdued this morning, with steep losses in South Korea and Hong Kong amid renewed U.S. trade tensions. The KOSPI fell 1.6% and the Hang Seng dropped 1.2% after President Trump signalled new tariffs. Chinese indices edged higher, Japan was flat, while Australia posted modest gains. Investors remained cautious ahead of possible retaliatory moves.
US equity futures edged lower Thursday night after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh highs, buoyed by strong June jobs data. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow futures each dipped 0.1–0.2%. Sentiment turned cautious ahead of Trump’s July 9 trade deadline and fading rate cut hopes. US markets are closed today for Independence Day.
European shares rose modestly yesterday, supported by easing trade tensions and positive U.S. economic data. The pan-European STOXX 600 index gained 0.3%, while Germany’s DAX increased 0.5% and France’s CAC 40 climbed 1%. Key movers included Siemens and Infineon, both rising over 1%, driven by strong sector momentum.
The US dollar index held above 97 on Friday, buoyed by a strong June jobs report that eased recession fears and tempered expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. The euro slipped as a result, with EUR/USD trading at 1.1779. Support also came from renewed tariff plans and the passage of Trump’s major tax and spending bill.
Oil prices slipped on Friday as Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and U.S.-Iran talks appeared likely to resume. Brent fell 0.3% to $68.58 and WTI edged down to $66.88. Market focus is also on Sunday’s expected OPEC+ decision to raise output by 411,000 bpd. Thin trading prevailed due to the U.S. holiday.
President Trump announced that the U.S. will begin sending letters to major economies outlining new export tariff rates, ranging from 10–20% and 60–70%, effective 1 August. Skipping negotiations, the U.S. will impose flat tariffs, starting with 10–12 countries. The move marks a shift from earlier pledges of trade deals and revives fears of escalating global trade tensions.
Equities on the move
The following companies experienced moves in their share price driven by analyst ratings, quarterly earnings, or other news:
Samsung is delaying completion of its Texas semiconductor factory due to customer shortages, impacting ASML’s equipment sales and weakening its 2025 outlook. Despite Samsung’s $37 billion investment and $4.7 billion in U.S. grants, the delay reduces demand for ASML’s advanced lithography systems, essential for producing cutting-edge semiconductor chips.
Mizuho Securities raised price targets for key semiconductor and AI server equities, citing strong demand and data centre growth. Nvidia’s target rose to $185, Broadcom to $315, ARM to $180, and AMD to $152. The firm highlighted accelerated AI compute needs, ASIC deployments, and hyperscaler adoption driving robust sector momentum into 2026 and beyond.
Apple’s App Store revenue rose 12% year-on-year in June, driven by growth beyond gaming, which now accounts for 45% of revenue. Downloads increased 4.3%, while revenue per download grew 6.9%. Bank of America sees this diversification as a long-term tailwind and maintains a Buy rating with a $235 price target on Apple shares.
Morgan Stanley kept an Overweight rating on Salesforce, citing pricing and packaging changes as growth drivers. Strategic price hikes and bundles should boost customer upgrades and subscription revenue through 2028. With valuation at around 17x EV/2026 FCF, these moves could accelerate growth and re-rate the share.
Needham upgraded Meta to Hold after strong Q2 results and labour productivity but flagged strategic risks, high equity-based compensation, margin pressures, and regulatory challenges. It raised 2025 revenue and EPS forecasts but warned that slowing productivity and rising costs could limit further share price gains.
Berenberg downgraded Rio Tinto to “hold” from “buy,” cutting its price target to 4,700p, citing weaker iron ore outlook, CEO uncertainty, and limited upside without Chinese stimulus. Glencore remains its top pick despite a lower 330p target, with potential upside from asset sales and shareholder returns. BHP and Anglo American were rated “hold” and “sell” respectively.
Bank of America raised its price target for Roku to $110, citing improving advertising trends and a deepening partnership with Amazon. The broker highlighted Roku’s structural changes and enhanced data sharing, which could boost ad performance. Revenue and EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were also increased, with a Buy rating maintained.
Upcoming data and events
Friday’s data calendar includes Germany’s factory orders and industrial production for May, both expected to reflect subdued manufacturing activity. Later, eurozone producer prices (PPI) for May will provide insight into inflation dynamics.
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