Markets reverse as Trump suggests Iran war nearing end

U.S. equity markets finished higher on Monday after recovering from sharp losses earlier in the session. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.4 percent to 22,695.95, the S&P 500 gained 0.8 percent to 6,795.99 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.5 percent to 47,740.80. Markets initially fell by more than 1 percent but rebounded after comments from Donald Trump suggested the conflict with Iran could end sooner than expected. Technology and communication services led gains, with semiconductor companies such as Broadcom, ASML and Micron Technology among the strongest performers. Energy and financials were the only sectors to close lower.

The recovery was supported by a sharp drop in oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil falling more than 8 percent to about 83.57 dollars per barrel after briefly approaching 120 dollars overnight. Lower oil prices helped ease inflation concerns and reduced market volatility, with the CBOE Volatility Index falling about 14 percent. Bond yields also moved lower, with the U.S. ten year Treasury yield declining to around 4.1 percent. Despite the rebound in U.S. equities, other markets were weaker, with Asian and European indices closing lower amid continued uncertainty surrounding the conflict and its potential impact on global energy supply.

Latest market and economic update

• Asian markets rose broadly following China’s trade data, with South Korea surging 4.66% and Japan climbing 2.51%. Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, and China all recorded solid gains, reflecting investor optimism. Stronger-than-expected export and import figures boosted confidence across the region, supporting equities amid hopes for a stabilising global economic recovery.

• U.S. equity futures edged lower overnight, signalling a cautious tone on Wall Street following yesterday session’s rebound. Investors continued to monitor geopolitical developments and the potential conclusion of the Iran conflict. Market participants also looked ahead to upcoming corporate earnings releases, including results from Oracle Corporation and Adobe Inc..

• European shares fell sharply yesterday, extending this month’s losses as rising energy prices heightened inflation concerns. The STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 indices both dropped 0.7%. Banks, industrials, and consumer discretionary were hit hardest, with UniCredit and Deutsche Bank down 1.5%, and Siemens and Schneider Electric down 1.7%, amid higher yields and surging power costs.

• The U.S. dollar eased against the euro on Tuesday, retreating from recent highs to $1.1632, as markets speculated the Middle East conflict might be limited. Comments from Donald Trump signalling progress in the Iran war reduced safe-haven demand, supporting risk assets, while traders maintained a cautious stance amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and volatile oil markets.

• Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday after volatile trading, as comments from Donald Trump suggesting the conflict with Iran could end soon eased supply concerns. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude dropped around 10 percent, retreating from earlier highs near 120 dollars per barrel reached amid escalating tensions.

• China’s exports surged 21.8 percent in January and February, far exceeding forecasts and highlighting strong global demand for electronics and technology products. The trade surplus reached 213.6 billion dollars as shipments of electric vehicles, batteries and solar equipment grew. Economists say export strength continues to support the China economy despite tariffs.

• Donald Trump said the conflict with Iran is "very complete" and that the U.S. is far ahead of his four- to five-week estimate, claiming Iran has lost much of its military capability, including its navy, air force, and communications. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards threatened to block oil exports, prompting Trump to warn of stronger U.S. strikes if shipping through Hormuz is stopped.

• The G7 finance ministers said they are ready to take necessary measures to support global energy supply, including releasing strategic oil reserves, amid Middle East tensions. They will continue monitoring energy markets and coordinate with international partners, with participation from the IMF, World Bank Group, OECD, and IEA.

Equities on the move

The following companies experienced moves in their share price driven by analyst ratings, quarterly earnings, or other news:

• Apple Inc has significantly increased iPhone production in India, assembling about 55 million units in 2025, up 53 percent from the previous year. The output now represents roughly a quarter of global iPhone production, reflecting Apple’s strategy to diversify manufacturing away from China amid trade tensions and benefit from India’s production-linked incentives.

• Anthropic has sued the US government to overturn a Pentagon decision labelling the AI company a national security supply-chain risk. The designation followed its refusal to remove safeguards preventing uses such as autonomous weapons or domestic surveillance. Anthropic says the move is unlawful and could threaten its government business and future federal contracts.

• Live Nation Entertainment reached a proposed $200 million settlement with the U.S. Justice Department over antitrust claims related to Ticketmaster, requiring structural reforms and opening parts of its platform to competitors. The move disrupts a trial involving 39 states, drawing criticism from the court and New York’s attorney general, who said it fails to address the monopoly.

• Roche’s breast cancer pill giredestrant failed its pivotal persevERA trial, showing no significant benefit in first-line ER-positive, HER2-negative metastatic cases. Jefferies said this undermines its commercial outlook and compresses earnings multiples, while AstraZeneca’s camizestrant trial offers advantages. Roche’s next giredestrant readouts are expected in 2027.

• JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka warned of short-term equity weakness from geopolitical derisking but views it as brief, offering a buying opportunity. Oversold areas are emerging despite oil and bond risks. Investors may focus on Industrials, Semis, Discretionary, emerging markets, the eurozone, and select oversold AI or hyperscaler shares in the coming week or two.

• Morgan Stanley warns oil prices could surge above $130 a barrel if disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz persist. About 20 million barrels of crude and refined products normally pass through the route daily. Prolonged disruption could tighten supply, trigger production cuts and push prices higher to curb global demand.

• Citi expects Apple to face margin pressure from rising memory costs in 2026–27, trimming earnings forecasts slightly, though its Buy rating and $315 target remain. iPhone shipments are unchanged, with growth of 1.3% in 2026. Apple’s scale, pricing flexibility, bill-of-material adjustments, and AI-driven services, including a Siri upgrade, could offset cost pressures and gain market share.

• Barclays cut Oracle’s price target to $230 from $310, warning that strong AI-driven revenue growth may pressure near-term margins due to upfront costs and lease timing. Q3 is expected to show revenue acceleration above consensus, but gross margins and EPS face headwinds. Barclays maintained an Overweight rating, citing compelling long-term risk/reward.

• Wells Fargo has resumed coverage of Netflix at Equal Weight, saying the company is returning to “Plan A: invest for growth” after abandoning its Warner Bros. Discovery bid. Analyst Steven Cahall highlights $20 billion content spending, engagement focus, sports ambitions, and a $105 price target as key valuation drivers.

• Rothschild Redburn double upgraded GE Vernova to Buy from Sell, raising its price target to $1,100, citing strong AI-driven demand for gas turbines and higher margins. 2028 EBITDA is expected 47% above consensus, with margins above 30%. Global gas turbine demand now projected over 100 GW. Analysts note risks if AI adoption or data centre expansion slows.

• Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini raised price targets for Micron, Samsung, SanDisk, and SK Hynix ahead of Micron’s fiscal Q2, citing stronger DRAM and NAND pricing and rising demand. AI workloads boost memory needs, while expanding manufacturing capacity may balance supply by 2027. Execution and margin management remain key for valuations.

• Barclays upgraded Leonardo to Overweight from Equal Weight, raising its price target to €68, citing stronger earnings momentum and potential restructuring of its aerostructures business. The defence group could see higher valuation, doubled free cash flow by 2030, and improved margins. Exposure to Ukraine and the Middle East is minimal, with 25% of revenue from the U.S.

• Jefferies upgraded Hensoldt to Buy from Hold, citing strong 2025 order momentum and rising demand for air defence systems, including Germany’s TRML-4D and Spexer radars. With over €48 billion in 2026 proposals, cash flow appears conservative despite higher capital spending. Revenue growth is back-end loaded, and the stock trades at a lower premium versus peers.

Upcoming data and events

Today, key economic releases include Germany’s January trade balance and US housing data, NFIB business optimism, a 3-year Treasury auction, and API crude stock changes. Earnings reports from Aramco and Oracle will provide insights into energy and tech sector performance amid ongoing economic trends.