Markets brace for key week ahead

General market commentary

Equity markets ended mixed on Friday following a two day relief rally, as concerns linked to the Greenland headlines continued to fade. Major equity indexes ended the session with little direction, while shares of Intel fell sharply, declining almost 17% after the company issued weaker guidance due to ongoing manufacturing challenges. Mega cap technology shares moved higher ahead of upcoming earnings releases, even as broader market leadership remained intact. Elsewhere, WTI crude oil finished higher at 61 dollars per barrel, while government bond yields and the US dollar both declined.

For the week as a whole, equity markets recorded a modest decline amid elevated geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Early weakness was driven by renewed tariff threats related to Europe and Greenland, before sentiment improved later in the week following signs of a potential framework agreement announced in Davos. Energy and materials outperformed, while small caps, value style equities and precious metals continued to attract increased investor interest. Although uncertainties remain and visibility on the indices has diminished, the underlying trend towards broader market participation and a renewed focus on corporate earnings remains supportive.

Latest market and economic update

Asian equity markets traded mixed on Monday, with Japan's Nikkei and Topix posting losses, while South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq saw positive movement. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong also declined, whereas China’s CSI 300 edged higher. Investors remain wary amid geopolitical uncertainties, keeping a close eye on upcoming economic events and policy decisions.

U.S. equity index futures dropped slightly on Sunday evening as markets prepared for a crucial week with a Federal Reserve policy meeting and key corporate earnings. S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.5%, and Dow Jones futures were down 0.3%. Geopolitical risks and trade tensions weighed on sentiment.

European equities closed slightly lower on Friday, with the Eurozone STOXX 50 down 0.3% and the STOXX 600 off 0.2%, as bank and consumer shares retreated. Losses in Santander, ING and Nordea outweighed gains in defence names, while SAP jumped ahead of earnings. Steady PMI data supported unchanged ECB policy expectations.

The US dollar index slid to 97, marking its third consecutive decline to a four-month low. The dollar weakened notably against the yen amid currency intervention fears, and geopolitical concerns added pressure. The EUR/USD exchange rate rose to 1.1858, with markets awaiting the Federal Reserve’s guidance on future rate cuts.

Oil prices were stable on Monday after significant gains on Friday, with Brent at $65.84 and WTI at $61.03. Geopolitical risks, including rising tensions with Iran, supported prices, while concerns about a potential supply glut lingered. Investors also awaited signals from the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting, which could impact oil demand.

US President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian exports if Canada strikes a trade deal with China. This follows Canada’s move to ease trade barriers with China, including allowing more Chinese electric vehicles into its market. The deal signals a shift in Canada's foreign policy away from Trump's trade agenda.

BlackRock executive Rick Rieder is emerging as a leading contender for Federal Reserve chair, praised for his Wall Street experience and reform ideas. Seen as less institutionally entrenched than rivals, his chances have risen to 35%, while Kevin Warsh’s probability has fallen to 41%. Trump administration officials have sought investor feedback on candidates.

Equities on the move

The following companies experienced moves in their share price driven by analyst ratings, quarterly earnings, or other news:

Chinese authorities have reportedly allowed major tech firms, including Alibaba, Tencent and ByteDance, to prepare orders for Nvidia’s H200 AI chips, signalling possible approval for imports. While companies can discuss quantities, analysts caution against overoptimism, noting approvals could be revoked and H200 sales are not yet included in Wall Street revenue or earnings forecasts.

Samsung Electronics will begin shipping its next-gen HBM4 high-bandwidth memory chips to Nvidia in February, ahead of rivals, reports say. After passing qualification tests with Nvidia and AMD, Samsung aims to enter the advanced AI memory market. HBM4 chips offer improved data bandwidth, crucial for AI accelerators. Samsung shares rose to near-record highs this morning.

The US plans to invest $1.6 billion in miner USA Rare Earth for a 10% stake, alongside a $1 billion private financing deal. The move aims to boost domestic production of critical minerals for semiconductors and national security, reducing reliance on China. The company’s Texas mine and Oklahoma magnet facility are set to launch in H1 2026.

The U.S. Justice Department urged a federal judge to break up Live Nation, alleging monopolistic control of live events through Ticketmaster. DOJ claims venues switching to rival ticketing services lost concerts and revenue. Live Nation denies illegal monopoly, citing limited incidents, and has requested dismissal or a ruling without trial, scheduled for March 2.

Airbus chief executive Guillaume Faury warned staff to prepare for rising geopolitical risks, citing damage from US protectionism and US China trade tensions. He said supply chains remain fragile, particularly engines, and urged greater rigour after a major recall. Despite challenges, Airbus delivered solid 2025 results and strengthened its defence and helicopter units.

UBS upgraded Siemens Energy to Buy from Sell, raising its price target to €175, citing an undersupplied gas turbine market and expanding profit margins. The brokerage expects strong order growth through 2026, higher EBITA margins in Gas Services and Grid Technologies, and fiscal 2030 earnings above consensus, supported by structural demand and backlog visibility.

TD Cowen upgraded Fortinet to Buy from Hold, maintaining a $100 price target, citing stable channel checks and potential upside to fourth-quarter 2025 billings and revenue. Analyst Shaul Eyal highlighted strong demand for security solutions, with AI augmenting rather than replacing software, and described the current share price as a favourable entry for long-term growth.

William Blair upgraded Starbucks to Outperform, citing its first U.S. same-store sales gain in two years and modest international growth, including China. While margins remain under pressure from higher labour costs, steady comp growth and productivity improvements could restore operating margins by 2030, supporting 15–20% EPS compound growth over five years.

RBC Capital Markets downgraded Adidas to Sector Perform from Outperform, cutting its 12-month price target to €160. Citing limited catalysts and elevated 2026 consensus expectations, the brokerage forecasts 7% organic growth and a 9.3% EBIT margin, below market estimates, reflecting brand maturation, slower underlying revenue growth, and modest margin expansion.

Upcoming data and events

The week ahead features heavy US earnings, led by Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Tesla, alongside major industrial, financial and energy firms. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady, while key US data include durable goods and PPI. Europe focuses on GDP, inflation and confidence, while Asia is led by China PMIs, Japan inflation and Australia CPI.

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