Farewell, 2016

The year has come to its conclusion, and it’s probably not one to look back at with fond memories. The widespread market selloff in January and February, China’s ‘slowdown’, slumping oil prices, Brexit, the selloff in sterling, the US elections, worries about Italian banks… That’s not to say it hasn’t been profitable – at least for a few people. But although your calendars will tell you it’s still 2016 for the next few hours the markets have already closed the books on the past 12 months and are fully focused on 2017.

What do we know so far? Donald Trump will no longer be the apprentice on January 20th, Europe will face significant political risk and US bond yields might be turning a corner. Other themes which will come to the fore will be the effect of a strengthening dollar on emerging markets, China’s growing debt, whether ultra-low bond yield in Europe – especially in sovereigns – can be sustained, and if OPEC and other oil-producing countries will honour the recent oil supply cut agreement.

As usual it is nigh on impossible, even with all the historical data in the world, to predict what 2017 is going to be like. So hang on to your seats, keep an eye on your portfolio, and enjoy the ride!

What about Yesterday?

The end of year period tends to be a bit slow on the market news front, but if you really must ask here’s a quickie of what went down yesterday:

The Dow still didn’t hit the mythical 20k figure and is not expected to hit it in 2016. The FTSE closed at an all-time high, but that’s only good news if you’re based in the UK. Toshiba fell another 16% as concerns about its ability to withstand another large write-down without selling core assets mount.

You’re welcome.