5 stocks to watch amid market turbulence in 2026

In a market climate dominated by continuous change, uncertainty, trade tensions, and geopolitical headwinds, behavioral finance has become more relevant than ever for smart investing. 

In today’s heightened volatility, retail investors might be carried away by emotions, and this is when smart investing is imperative. The opening months of 2026 have been marked by significant market swings, driven by alternating waves of fear and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, unexpected geopolitical developments, and growing uncertainty over monetary policy direction. This created a more challenging climate for long-term rational investors who seek long-term value creation, while emotionally driven investors have been more vulnerable to impulsive and costly investment decisions. 

Market overview 

Over the past six months, global financial markets navigated a highly complex environment marked by elevated volatility, persistent inflationary pressures, renewed geopolitical conflicts, and capital flows increasingly dominated by artificial intelligence. Despite several episodes of sharp corrections during the period, most notably following the escalation of the Iran conflict and the resulting spike in energy prices, global equities ultimately proved remarkably resilient, supported primarily by the strong corporate earnings and investment momentum surrounding the AI infrastructure buildout. 

The macroeconomic backdrop remained uneven across regions. While the U.S. economy demonstrated relative resilience, supported by AI-driven investment activity and energy independence, Europe and several emerging economies became progressively more exposed to the negative consequences of higher energy prices and weakening industrial momentum. Inflation remained more persistent than policymakers had anticipated, effectively postponing expectations for a meaningful monetary easing cycle and, in some regions, even reviving discussions around potential further tightening. 

Following the market turbulence recorded during the first quarter of 2026, equities staged a powerful rebound as investors gradually gained greater visibility regarding global trade tensions and tariff-related risks. The artificial intelligence investment theme continued to  dominate market performance throughout the period, with earnings reports from hyperscalers and semiconductor companies consistently reinforcing expectations for a prolonged investment cycle focused on AI infrastructure, data centres, and advanced semiconductors.  

Technology and communication services sectors, increasingly concentrated around the “Magnificent 7” ecosystem, materially outperformed most traditional sectors. Such dynamics contributed to historically narrow market breadth, with a small number of mega-cap names accounting for a disproportionate share of overall index performance. 

How our Autumn 2025 Top Picks performed

Between October 2025 and April 2026 global equity markets delivered a decent performance, which was quite impressive given the high volatility experienced during the period, in particular after the conflict in Iran broke out. 

Our strongest conviction, BNP Paribas, materially outperformed both the benchmark and the broader basket of recommendations from the outset of the period. Initially, the stock benefited from a highly discounted valuation caused by the French political crisis in 2025. As political uncertainty gradually eased, the shares re-rated strongly alongside the broader European banking sector. Although the spike in energy prices triggered by the Iran conflict later raised concerns regarding the Eurozone economic outlook, the powerful rebound in equity markets during April ultimately supported a remarkable total return of 33.1% for the position, significantly outperforming global equities. 

Our second recommendation, Spotify Technologies, experienced a substantial de-rating in valuation multiples amid rising concerns over slowing consumer spending trends across developed markets. While the company continued to demonstrate the key attributes supporting our investment thesis, namely a strong competitive moat and dominant market positioning, investor attention shifted back toward artificial intelligence beneficiaries which weighed heavily on sentiment. As a result, the stock delivered a disappointing total return of -33.1% during the period. 

Among our Magnificent 7 selections, Amazon experienced particularly elevated volatility. Investor concerns initially focused on the prospect of extremely large capital expenditure commitments required to maintain competitiveness within the ongoing artificial intelligence infrastructure race. However, sentiment later reversed sharply as enthusiasm surrounding the AI theme intensified again, allowing the stock to recover despite deteriorating free cash flow generation and increasingly aggressive capital expenditure (capex) guidance from management. Ultimately, it modestly outperformed the broader market, delivering a total return of 6.5%. 

Microsoft Corp, our second Magnificent 7 recommendation, became caught in the February “SaaS-acre” selloff, during which software companies were indiscriminately repriced lower amid fears that artificial intelligence could eventually disrupt large parts of their ecosystem. Despite the fact that more than 70% of Microsoft’s revenues are now linked to cloud-related activities, with both growth and margin resilience remaining evident, investors remained cautious toward the sector. Consequently, the stock posted a total return of -22.3% over the period. At current levels, the stock may present an attractive entry point. 

Finally, MercadoLibre underperformed expectations. Our investment thesis was based primarily on what we viewed as an attractive valuation relative to the company’s long-term growth potential. However, the deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook for emerging markets, particularly following the rise in energy prices, combined with signs of moderating profitability despite still robust top-line expansion, negatively impacted market sentiment. As a result, the stock recorded a total return of -24.3% during the period. 

Highlight on 5 thriving companies

Despite ongoing market turbulence, certain companies continue to capitalise on emerging opportunities and strengthen their competitive positioning, making them attractive additions to put on your watchlist. This article puts the spotlight on 5 such companies, identified through the following structured 3-step analysis: 

1. Sectoral screening: A sector-specific screening model is employed, incorporating a range of financial and operational metrics to assess the long-term viability of companies. Firms exhibiting consistently positive trends across these metrics are shortlisted for deeper evaluation. 

2. Financial modelling & common-size analysis: Detailed financial models are developed for selected companies to incorporate historical performance data and include a comprehensive common-size analysis to facilitate cross-sectional and time-series comparisons. 

3. One-year price target estimation: A one-year price target is determined using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach. The initial Weighted Average Cost of Capital used to discount projected free cash flows is tailored for each company. It reflects factors such as the firm’s business model, geographical distribution of sales, functional currency risk-free rate and outstanding leverage profile. DCF models’ assumptions are regularly benchmarked against the most recent earnings releases from companies. 

Meta Platforms 

As the world’s largest social media company by daily active users, Meta Platforms benefits from unmatched scale across social media, digital advertising, messaging, and increasingly artificial intelligence infrastructure. Despite regulatory scrutiny, elevated AI-related capital expenditures, and intensifying competition for user engagement, the company continues to deliver highly resilient revenue growth supported by its advertising network, superior user monetisation capabilities, and growing engagement across Instagram, WhatsApp, and Reels.  

Meta’s ongoing investment in AI infrastructure and recommendation algorithms is materially improving advertising efficiency and user retention, reinforcing its competitive position within the global digital advertising ecosystem. 

After periods of heightened volatility linked to concerns surrounding AI monetisation timelines, regulatory pressures, and the scale of ongoing capital expenditure commitments, the stock now offers an attractive long-term risk-reward profile relative to its structural growth prospects and free cash flow generation capabilities. We believe near-term pressure surrounding capex commitments should prove transitory, with financial performance expected to strengthen as the next phase of the artificial intelligence investment cycle develops. 

Sector	Communications
Country	United States
Price	$611.91
Price Target	$750
Upside	22.5%

Booking Holdings 

Booking Holdings continues to navigate a more complex environment marked by moderating consumer spending trends, elevated geopolitical uncertainty, and increasing competition across digital travel platforms. Nevertheless, the company’s core growth drivers remain firmly intact, with its dominant global accommodation marketplace, highly diversified geographic exposure, and expanding alternative accommodation offering continuing to support resilient booking volumes and robust monetisation dynamics.  

The company’s asset-light business model, disciplined marketing optimisation, and scalable technology infrastructure continue to generate exceptional free cash flow conversion and attractive operating leverage. 

 After experiencing a significant valuation re-rating driven by investor concerns over the potential long-term impact of artificial intelligence on online search and travel discovery, the stock now appears to offer an increasingly attractive long-term risk-reward opportunity relative to its high-quality business profile and earnings resilience. We believe Booking Holdings represents a compelling combination of platform dominance, operational resilience, and durable shareholder return potential within the global consumer internet sector. 

Sector	Online travel
Country	United States
Price	$168.36
Price Target	$250
Upside	48.4%

Arista Networks 

Arista Networks has emerged as one of the highest-quality infrastructure beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence investment cycle, leveraging its technology leadership to capture accelerating demand from hyperscale data centres and AI clusters. The ongoing expansion of AI infrastructure is driving a structural increase in demand for high-bandwidth, low-latency networking solutions, where the company maintains strong competitive positioning. At the same time, Arista continues to diversify beyond its hyperscaler customer base through growing exposure to enterprise campus networking, security, and routing solutions, broadening its addressable market and reducing customer concentration risk over time. 

While concerns periodically emerge regarding the sustainability of AI-related capex cycles and increasing competition within networking infrastructure, the company combines strong revenue growth with exceptional profitability metrics, supported by a highly asset-light model, disciplined cost structure, and substantial free cash flow generation. We believe the market continues to underestimate both the duration and scale of the AI networking opportunity, and supported by strong execution, expanding product breadth, and deep customer relationships, Arista remains exceptionally well positioned to compound earnings and shareholder returns over the long term. 

Sector	Hardware infrastructure
Country	United States
Price	$172.71
Price Target	$200
Upside	15.8%

Taiwan Semiconductors Manufacturing Company 

TSMC serves as the critical manufacturing backbone for the world’s leading chip designers. The company’s technological leadership in advanced process nodes, combined with unmatched scale and capital intensity, has created a durable competitive advantage that few competitors are realistically capable of replicating. Deep strategic relationships with key customers including Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and Broadcom continue to reinforce long-term capacity utilisation and revenue visibility. 

While geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan remain an important long-term consideration, TSMC’s global manufacturing diversification strategy and critical role within the semiconductor supply chain continue to support its strategic positioning, offering unique exposure to the structural expansion of artificial intelligence and advanced computing demand. 

Sector	Semiconductors
Country	Taiwan
Price	$396.06
Price Target	$450
Upside	13.6%

GE Vernova LLC 

Positioned at the intersection of two of the most powerful secular trends of our time, GE Vernova operates as a focused energy technology platform spanning power generation, grid infrastructure, renewable energy, and electrification solutions. Following its separation from General Electric, the company has rapidly established itself as a critical enabler of the global electrification cycle, with particular exposure to accelerating electricity demand driven by AI-powered data centres and grid modernisation initiatives. Its strong technological capabilities and installed-base advantages across gas turbines, grid equipment, and power management systems place it at the centre of a structurally growing addressable market. 

The rapid expansion of hyperscale AI infrastructure is increasingly creating bottlenecks across electricity generation and transmission networks, driving significant incremental demand across all of GE Vernova’s core business lines. Supported by improving profitability, strong order momentum, and strategic exposure to AI-related power demand, the stock offers a compelling entry point for investors seeking long-term exposure to the global electrification and energy infrastructure investment cycle. 

Sector	Industrials
Country	United States
Price	$1,083.46
Price Target	$1300
Upside	19.9%

This analysis was conducted by Cosmin Alexandru Mizof, Investment Manager at Calamatta Cuschieri.  

Navigating investments in 2026 

Markets in 2026 are likely to remain volatile, shaped by geopolitical risks, persistent inflationary pressures, and momentum-driven market dynamics. Rather than trying to predict every macro turn, focusing on high-quality companies with solid earnings power, scalable models, and undervalued entry points may be the best path forward. 

These five picks represent a strategic mix of resilience, global diversification, and future-facing growth potential. Investors are still encouraged to do their own research or seek guidance from an expert advisor to set up their ideal investment portfolio. 

The financial instruments discussed are intended for retail clients however, they may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein. The value of the investment may go down as well as up and may be affected by changes in currency. Any performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee nor a reliable guide to future performance.  

This information is being provided solely for information purposes and should not be deemed or construed as investment advice, tax, legal, or any other ancillary regulatory advice. CCIS does not accept liability for actions, proceedings, costs, demands, expenses, damages, and losses suffered by persons as a result of information, views, or opinions appearing in this document.  

All investment services are brought to you by Calamatta Cuschieri Investment Services Ltd (CCIS) C13729 which is licensed by the MFSA to undertake investment services business under the Investment Services Act, Cap 370. Calamatta Cuschieri Investment Services Ltd is a member of the Maltese Investor Compensation Scheme. Instruments entrusted with us are covered under the Investor Compensation Scheme Regulations.  

MB and CCIS are both subsidiaries of Calamatta Cuschieri Moneybase plc with their registered address at Level 0, Ewropa Business Centre, Dun Karm Street, Birkirkara, BKR 9034, Malta.