Expert analysis: SpaceX IPO 

SpaceX has built what is arguably the most impressive private enterprise of the past two decades. It launches the majority of the world’s orbital mass, operates Starlink, the dominant global satellite-internet network, and is now moving into AI infrastructure at scale.  Most companies with ambitions this large stumble on delivery. SpaceX has consistently done the opposite. 

But as SpaceX moves closer to a public listing, investors face a question that goes beyond the business itself: what is it actually worth? 

Our latest research addresses this directly. Our team has conducted a thorough bottom-up valuation of SpaceX’s three core business lines, being launch services, Starlink, and emerging AI infrastructure, and their findings suggest that the current IPO pricing may not fully reflect the risks and uncertainties involved. 

A significant portion of the valuation debate centres on the long-term optionality embedded in SpaceX’s future ambitions. Starship’s next generation launch capabilities and the company’s growing AI infrastructure interests are both exciting prospects, but they also carry execution risk and require substantial ongoing investment. Calamatta Cuschieri’s view is that these opportunities, while real, should not be fully underwritten at today’s pricing. 

Valuation, price targets and outlook 

The full research report provides detailed valuation analysis, price targets, and our outlook on SpaceX, offering a comprehensive view of the investment case and what a more attractive entry point might look like.  

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This equity research document is issued by Calamatta Cuschieri Investment Services Ltd “CCIS”. Newly issued research recommendations and target prices supersede previously published research. 

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