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The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation.
The Dow added more than 1% on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 almost gained 1.5% and 1.7%, respectively, as investors digested a batch of economic data and earning results in the busiest week of earnings season. On the economic front, the growth in US labor costs slowed down in December, indicating that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive approach to tame inflation will most likely ease later today. General Motors jumped almost 8% on its firm earnings report and Pfizer added 1.4% amid its weak 2023 outlook, while Caterpillar missed estimates and dipped 3.5%. Meantime, PayPal went up 2.3% after it planned to cut 2,000 jobs. In January, the Nasdaq 100 rallied 11.5%, while the S&P 500 and Dow were up 6.6% and 2.9%, respectively, marking their third positive month. Meantime equities in Europe finished mixed, as the markets digested a series of economic reports from all over the region, while also appearing cautious ahead of looming monetary policy decisions.
Summary as at 01.02.2023
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