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The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation.
The major US equity indices extended losses on Thursday, with the Dow losing 0.35%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declined 0.84% and 1.37%, respectively. Consumer discretionary, financials and industrials were hit by recession fears, while defensive stocks outperformed. All three benchmarks are headed for their second straight losing week and are all down at least 2% so far during the period. In the meantime, European equity markets tumbled to multi-month lows yesterday, as rising interest rates and worries over the economic outlook again soured the mood. The Euro Stoxx 50 index dropped 1.8%, with technology shares among the worst performers as the bond selloff resumed.
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