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The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation.
The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 fell for the second session on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq extended losses into a seventh session, the longest losing streak since November 2016, as the latest economic data reinforced market bets on more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Elsewhere, most major European bourses gained sound ground yesterday, with the Euro Stoxx 50 adding 0.3% as consumer discretionary and materials shares outperformed the broader market.
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