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The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation.
The initial upside momentum on Wednesday turned sharply lower on Wall Street following the Fed’s monetary policy decision. The Central Bank raised rates by 75 basis points for a fourth-straight meeting but opened the door to slowing within its statement. However, in his press conference, Chairman Powell reiterated that any notion of a pause was premature. Treasury yields were mixed and the US dollar traded to the upside, while crude oil prices gained ground, and gold saw a modest loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6%, the S&P 500 Index tumbled 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 3.4%. European equity markets also closed the mid-week session in the red, with the Euro Stoxx 50 snapping a seven-day winning streak.
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