The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation. 

US equity markets staged a rebound in regular trading on Monday after last week’s selloff, led by the Dow’s 2.0% surge. The S&P 500 also jumped 1.9% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6%. Monday’s rebound was helped by Biden’s comments that China tariffs imposed by Trump are being reviewed.  Meantime, European equities rose for a second straight session yesterday, buoyed by some dip-buying strategies and upbeat macroeconomic data even with persistent headwinds from tighter monetary policy and inflation.   


  • Shares in Asia mainly fell this morning with Hong Kong down almost 1.5%, and China shedding around 1%, on mounting fears over global recession due to multiple headwinds. In Australia, the ASX was flat as the new Labour government said that the relations with Beijing will remain challenging. 
  • European shares are on course for a weak start while US stock futures were also pointing to a lower open. 
  • Oil prices eased in early trade on Tuesday as concerns over a possible recession and weaker consumption outweighed an expectation of tight global supply and pick-up in fuel demand in China after Beijing’s promises of stimulus.  
  • A survey from the Ifo institute showed that German business sentiment unexpectedly rose to a 3-month high of 93, indicating that Europe’s largest economy shows no signs of a recession. At the same time, investors digested more hawkish signals from the ECB. President Christine Lagarde said the Central Bank was likely to lift its deposit rate out of the negative territory by September. 
  • US President Joe Biden on Monday said he would be willing to use force to defend Taiwan, prompting thanks from the democratic, self-rule island – but sharp criticism from China. 
  • Snap shares plunged 30% in extended trading on Monday after CEO Evan Spiegel warned in a note to employees that the company will miss its own targets for revenue and adjusted earnings in the current quarter in view that the economy had worsened more than expected in the last month.   
  • JPMorgan raised its full-year 2022 outlook for net interest income to $56 billion from original projections in January of roughly $50 billion. The revised outlook assumes that Fed will raise short-term rates to 3% by the end of the year and the bank will experience high single-digit loan growth.