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The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation.
US equities pulled back from session lows on Friday, ending flat amid lingering worries about soaring inflation hitting companies’ profit margins, and an aggressive tightening potentially causing a recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 8 points after being down more than 600 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3% and is already deep in the bear market territory, trading 30% off its highs. The S&P 500 finished unchanged after falling as much as 2.3%. For the week, the Dow was off by 2.9%, its first 8-week losing streak since 1923. The S&P 500 was also down by 3% and the Nasdaq lost 3.8%, their seven-straight week of decline. Meanwhile European markets managed to gain some ground on Friday but still posted a weekly decline.
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