Ongoing Market Commentary: Lifting restrictions to boost fuel demand

The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation. 

US shares notched their worst session yesterday in almost two years as weak earnings reports from retailers added to concerns that high inflation would slow global growth. Technology and growth companies were under heavy pressure, with Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla and Amazon down between 3.5% and 5.8%. The Dow Jones fell 3.6%, the S&P 500 tumbled 4.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 4.7%. European bourses also finished the session deep in the red, with the regional Stoxx 600 falling around 1%. 

Summary

• Shares in Asia slipped this morning, with the Hang Seng tumbling over 2%, down for the first time in five sessions. Sharp losses were also seen in Japan, Australia, and South Korea. Stocks in China edged down, as Shanghai will start to allow more businesses to resume normal operations from June. 
• Stocks in Europe are set to dip at the open while US stock futures were seen steady early morning.  
• Oil prices rose today, recovering from early losses, on hopes that planned easing of restrictions in Shanghai could improve fuel demand while lingering concerns over tight global supplies outweighed fears of slower economic growth. 
• Target Corp’s Q1 profit fell by half and the company warned of a bigger margin hit on rising fuel and freight costs. Shares fell about 25% in regular trading on Wednesday. 
• Cisco Systems shares dropped around 17% after-hours Wednesday following the company’s Q3 earnings results. While EPS of $0.87 came in better than the consensus estimate of $0.86, the revenue of $12.8 million missed the consensus estimate of $13.34 million. The company expects Q4 EPS in the range of $0.76-$0.84, below the consensus of $0.92, and revenue growth in the range of –5.5% to –1.0%. 
• Tencent Holding’s revenue growth in the first quarter slowed to its weakest pace in nearly two decades, as China’s pandemic resurgence and the yearlong regulatory crackdown hit the company’s operations. Meanwhile profit fell by 51%.