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The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation.
Stocks bounced higher on Friday to close a chaotic week, helped in the end by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s reassurance that rate hikes on the order of 75 basis points were off the table for now. Friday’s gains were not enough to erase sharp losses for the full week, as the Dow Jones index ended with its seventh weekly loss in a row, while the S&P 500 slid 2.4% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.8%. European markets on the other hand, managed to close the week on a positive note and avoided a fifth straight weekly decline.
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