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The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation.
Wall Street gains accelerated in the last hour of trading on Friday with the Dow closing 823 points higher, the S&P 500 adding 3%, and the Nasdaq advancing 3.3% as expectations of higher and faster rate hikes cooled. While recessionary fears remained a top concern among investors, recent economic data pointing to a moderation in inflation expectations sparked speculation that central banks may take their foot off the pedal. All three major averages snapped three-week losing streaks with the Dow up 5.4%, the S&P 500 adding 6.5%—its biggest advance since May 2020—and the Nasdaq surging 7.5%. In Europe, the benchmark Euro Stoxx 50 ended up 2.8% on Friday, erasing weekly losses.
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