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The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation.
The major US equity indices closed mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow erasing 0.5%, the S&P 500 ending 0.4% lower and the Nasdaq making a shy rebound of 0.2%, as investors continued to assess the outlook for inflation and economic growth while refraining from opening new positions ahead of the Fed decision later today. In Europe, major bourses ended sharply lower, extending losses for a sixth straight session, pressured by concerns that the central banks’ aggressive rate hikes would tip the economy into recession.
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