Ongoing Market Commentary: Markets brace for bigger Fed hike

The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation. 

US equities sell-off accelerated in the last hour of trading on Monday, as investors are coming to terms that the economy will suffer a major hit as soaring inflation is forcing the Fed to raise rates higher and faster. The Dow closed down 980 points, the S&P 500 shed nearly 4% sliding into a bear market, and the Nasdaq fell 4.8%. European markets also closed deeply in the red, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 index shedding more than 2%, dragged down by travel and leisure stocks that are particularly sensitive to the global economic outlook. 

Summary

• Equities in Asia continued their decline on Tuesday on fears that aggressive tightening by the Fed would push the US economy into recession, with repercussions across the region. Traders were also nervous about the Covid-19 situation in Beijing, as thousands are under targeted lockdowns. The ASX sank over 4%, as trading resumed from a holiday. Stocks in Hong Kong, China, South Korea and Japan all fell, down over 1%, each. 
• European futures are rising this morning as US contracts were up more than 1% after Monday’s rout. 
• Oil prices seesawed in positive and negative territory earlier today, holding up despite recession fears and potential new Covid-19 curbs in China that could dampen demand as the market remains tightly supplied. 
• Bitcoin dropped below $22,000 this morning, hitting its lowest level since December 2020 and extending a relentless selloff that wiped off more than $200 billion in the entire cryptocurrency market. 
• Total Energies announced plans to acquire a 25% stake in Indian conglomerate Adani New Industries from Adani Enterprises for an undisclosed amount. 
• Oracle topped Wall Street estimates for fourth-quarter revenue on Monday, with more businesses increasing spending on cloud as they transition to a hybrid work environment. At the same time, net come remained flat compared to a year earlier.