Ongoing Market Commentary: US ISM Manufacturing PMI rises since April

The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation. 

Volatility continued to grip equities in June, with all three major US indices closing the first trading day of the month roughly 0.5% down as an initial attempt to rebound failed amid persistent worries about an aggressive tightening to rein in decades-high inflation and the potential economic slowdown. European equity markets also closed lower on Wednesday amid similar reasons. 

Summary

• Shares in Asia declined in Thursday trade, with the Hang Seng Index leading losses regionally as it declined by over 1.5%. 
• European stock futures nudged higher this morning while US futures were muted as investors dwell on the health of the economy. 
• Oil prices fell around 2% on Thursday, ahead of the OPEC+ meeting later in the day after a report from the Financial Times that Saudi Arabia is ready to pump more oil if Russian output falls following EU sanctions. 
• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned investors to prepare for an economic “hurricane” as the economy struggles against an unprecedented combination of challenges, including tightening monetary policy and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 
• The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US unexpectedly rose to 56.1 in May from 55.4 in April and beating market forecasts of 54.5. In contrast, Europe’s monthly manufacturing expansion fell to 54.6 in May from 55.5 in April, its lowest activity growth reading since November 2020. 
• The number of job openings in the US was 11.4 million in April, down from a revised record high of 11.85 million in March, matching market expectations and suggesting firms continued to struggle to hire new workers. 
• Sheryl Sandberg is stepping down from her role as Chief Operating Officer at Meta. Sandberg joined Facebook in early 2008 as the No. 2 to Facebook CEO and co-founder Mark Zuckerberg, and helped turn Facebook into an advertising powerhouse and one of the most powerful companies in the tech industry. 
• Apple is reportedly moving some of its iPad production to Vietnam from China after supply chain disruptions stemming from coronavirus lockdowns in and around Shanghai caused global repercussions. The company has also asked some component suppliers to bulk up their inventories to guard against future supply chain snags. 
• Tesla CEO Elon Musk has asked employees to return to the office or leave the company, according to an email sent to employees. Musk has requested employees to spend a minimum of 40 hours in the office per week and anyone not showing up is assumed to have resigned.