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The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation.
The main US equity indices declined on Monday, with investors treading carefully as fresh economic data and corporate earnings reports to be released this week will shed light on current recession risks. The Dow Jones lost over 160 points, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell 1.1% and 2.2%, respectively. Sentiment remained clouded by bets that the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates aggressively, recently support by stronger than expected payroll data released last week and expectations that this week’s CPI figure will point to an acceleration in consumer prices. Meanwhile, European equity markets also closed in the red on Monday after three consecutive sessions of gains, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1%.
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