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The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation.
Wall Street closed in negative territory on Thursday, with the Dow 254 points lower, the S&P 500 down 0.9% and the Nasdaq underperforming with a 1.3% loss. All three major indices saw sharp monthly and quarterly losses, with technology stocks hit especially hard. On first-half performances, the Dow and the S&P saw their worst performances since 1962 and 1970, respectively, while the Nasdaq suffered its worst-ever half-year run. European markets also closed sharply lower on the last trading day of June, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.7%. Year-to-date, it was the worst first semester since the 2008 Great Recession, with the index slumping 20.2%.
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