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The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation.
Markets chose to ignore disappointing activity indicators last week to focus instead on signs of easing of the Chinese zero-Covid policy, but especially the more accommodating words of Jerome Powell about a smaller rate hike in December. The monthly report on American employment dampened the mood, with job creations well above expectations and an hourly wage up 0.6%, generating profit-taking on Friday. The Dow Jones gained 0.1% on Friday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both retreated by 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively. For the week, the Dow was little changed, while the S&P and the Nasdaq both advanced for the second week in a row. In the meantime, European equity indices fell on Friday afternoon, registering the first week of losses in seven.
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