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The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation.
After five weeks of progress for most indices in the wake of good corporate results, financial markets took a breather last week. Poor macroeconomic indicators and the Federal Reserve’s willingness to maintain its aggressive monetary policy in the short term have somewhat revived fears of recession, leading to legitimate profit taking after the flourishing summer period. On the week, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq dropped 1.1% and 2.5%, respectively, and the Dow booked marginal losses. Similarly, the Euro Stoxx 50 in Europe was down 1.4% for the week.
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