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The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation.
US equities kicked off the shortened week by posting sharp losses yesterday. Uncertainty regarding the Fed’s future rate hike decisions appeared to pressure market sentiment, as investors grapple with recent hot inflation data and Fedspeak. Retail companies headlined the earnings calendar, as Walmart bested profit projections and raised its annual dividend, while Home Depot beat estimates and increased its quarterly dividend, but issued some disappointing guidance. The economic calendar showed manufacturing activity increased but continued to contract, while services activity rose more than expected into expansion territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 2.1% and turned negative for the year, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped 2% and 2.5%, respectively. In Europe, losses were much more contained, with the benchmark Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.5% led by tech, auto and basic resources shares while banks moved higher.
Summary as at 21.02.2023
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