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The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation.
All three major US indexes finished in the red on Thursday, after better-than-expected producer’s inflation report raised worries that the Fed will take its monetary policy tightening further. The Dow lost more than 400 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were down almost 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively. The producer price index rose 0.7% month-on-month (mom) in January, the most since June 2022, while analysts expected a modest 0.4% gain. At the same time, initial jobless claims, the most timely snapshot of the labour market, came in lower-than-expected at 194,000 for the week ended Feb. 11, pointing to a tight labour market. Meanwhile, European equity markets pared some gains but closed Thursday’s session higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.4%. Banks were among the best performers led by an over 10% gain in Commerzbank.
Summary as at 17.02.2023
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