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The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation.
US equities rallied into the close to finish near the highs of the day, as investors appeared to shake off the persistent rise in interest rates. The markets also digested some earnings reports, as Salesforce jumped after topping expectations, and Macy’s also moved solidly higher after besting the Street’s forecasts. However, disappointing guidance from Best Buy took some lustre off its earnings beat. Elsewhere, the economic calendar added to the Fed uncertainty, as jobless claims unexpectedly dipped, while Q4 productivity was revised lower and unit labour costs were adjusted to the upside. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 342 points or over 1%, the S&P 500 Index added 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.7%. Meantime, European equity markets followed a similar pattern, reversing losses to close yesterday’s session higher, after CPI numbers in the Euro Area came in above market expectations, but not as high as investors had feared based on national readings in recent days.
Summary as at 03.03.2023
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