A pivotal day for investors, marking the conclusion of the second quarter and the first half.

A gauge of global stocks fell slightly on Friday, trimming a first-half rally that’s defied rising interest rates and the risk of recessions in major economies.  Bonds sold off across the curve, with two-year yields jumping 15 basis points to 4.86%. Swap markets now indicate a nearly 50% chance of a second Fed hike by year-end. The dollar rose. The S&P 500 posted a mild advance, with equities facing a lot of instability as traders adjusted their positions at the end of the quarter. 

Summary for 30.06.2023 

• U.S. equity futures were little changed on Thursday evening as investors awaited the latest data on personal consumption expenditures, the Federal Reserve’s favoured inflation gauge. 
• Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched lower by 26 points or 0.08%. S&P 500 futures ticked lower by 0.03%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were just above the flat line. 
• In Thursday’s regular trading, the Dow jumped nearly 270 points, or 0.8%, with help from major bank names. The S&P 500 added close to 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite ended the day flat. 

• Wall Street traders took Jerome Powell’s hawkish signals in stride, with bond yields down and stocks fluctuating in one of the last few days of a quarter that saw a blistering artificial intelligence rally. 
• For June: The S&P 500 has gained 5.18% and is on pace for its best monthly performance since January. The Nasdaq has advanced 5.07%, and it and the broad-market index are heading for a fourth consecutive positive month. The Dow has climbed 3.69%, and it’s on track for its best month since November. 
• For the second quarter: The S&P 500 has risen 6.99% and is tracking for a third straight quarter of gains. The Nasdaq touts a gain of 11.2% for back-to-back positive quarters. The Dow has jumped 2.55%, but it’s also on pace for a third winning quarter. 
• For the year to date and the first half: The S&P 500 has popped 14.51%, and it’s heading for its best first half since 2018. The Nasdaq has surged nearly 30%, tracking for its best first half since 1983. The 30-stock Dow has a more modest gain of 2.94%. 
• The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to continued labour market strength. 

• Germany’s consumer price inflation increased to 6.4 per cent year-on-year in June 2023, rising from the 14-month low of 6.1 per cent recorded in May and slightly exceeding market expectations of 6.3 per cent, according to a preliminary estimate 
• China: The official NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 49 in June of 2023 from 48.8 in May, matching market estimates while pointing to the third straight month of contraction in factory activity. The latest figure came amid growing signs that China’s post-pandemic recovery lost steam, with new orders (48.6 vs 48.3 in May), buying activity (48.9 vs 49.0) and export sales (46.4 vs 47.2) all extending declines 
• Many macro hedge funds that bet on global economic trends are ending the first half of 2023 with losses. Still, uncertainty around how different central banks will handle monetary policy could provide trading opportunities for the rest of the year. 
• The yen whipsawed after weakening through the closely watched 145 level versus the dollar 
• Oil and gas will remain leading sources of energy for decades to come, major industry players echoed during the inaugural Energy Asia conference.