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Yesterday’s stock market rally proved to be short lived as fears of a US rate hike sent equity investors running for cover. Spurred by data showing gains in consumer prices and new-home construction, rates in short-dated US Treasury bonds rose dramatically, and the spread between 2 and 10-year US Treasuries fell to a low not seen since 2007.
In Europe the FTSE managed to put together a few gains but most bourses were down for the day, led by underperforming automakers. There were a couple of bright spots as housebuilder Taylor Wimpey rose almost 5% after announcing a £1.3 billion dividend program over the next 3 years on the back of strong demand for property in the UK. Vodafone was also up on an improved outlook – the world’s number 2 mobile phone operator said it expects earnings to grow in 2016 as network upgrades boosted demand in Europe and contributed to the first rise in core earnings in 8 years.
In the US, the rise in the Consumer Price Index led most stocks lower, erasing much it not all the gains made on Monday. The inflation measure hit 1.1% and grew at the fastest month-on-month rate in 3 years. Oil hovered around its yearly highs and the dollar strengthened to a 3-week high against the Japanese yen.
The data will likely spark yet another debate on whether the US Federal Reserve should consider raising rates again sooner rather than later. Indeed, the minutes from April’s meeting which are due to be released tonight will show the extent to which an imminent rate hike was discussed. Some Fed members recently aired views of a possible interest rate increase as early as June or July, but pricing based on the federal funds futures shows less than a 23% chance of a rate hike in the next 2 months.
The minutes will also likely reveal the extent to which the US’ top monetary policy makers are worried, if at all, about the outlook for the US economy. Economic indicators have recently stabilized, and job creation remains strong but the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation remains stubbornly well below target. The market will also be on the lookout for more colour on the decision to remove the assessment of risks to the Fed’s outlook. The global economic uncertainty in the beginning of the year had caused the Fed to drop what had become an ongoing feature in post-meeting announcements.
Brexit Drives Dutch IPO Listings
The volatile start to the year put many global initial public offerings (IPOs) on hold, as companies wishing to go public typically do so in calm or bullish market conditions in a bid to attract greater demand. Markets have been relatively calmer as of late, and although many global bourses are struggling to make any significant headway in 2016, IPO activity may rebound in the second quarter, as the race to beat the Brexit vote – an event with tremendous potential to heavily disrupt the markets – gets closer.
In particular, Amsterdam may be a very busy place in the coming weeks, as Bloomberg data shows Dutch IPOs heading for the highest second-quarter announcements in 17 years. Philips said it would float shares in its lightin unit, and nationalized insurer ASR Nederland also declared its intention to be listed. Shares in SIF Holdings, which produces foundations for wind, oil and gas platforms, started trading last week. Listing volumes were also higher in France – furniture retailer Maisons du Monde announced its IPO on Monday.
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