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The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation.
US equities finished solidly higher on Tuesday despite a flurry of headwinds, notably the Fed’s aggressive tightening campaign to combat persistently high inflation, reemphasized by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in an interview. A mostly upbeat economic calendar appeared to aid sentiment, as retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilisation, and business inventories all rose. The Dow Jones rose 1.3%, the S&P 500 increased by 2.0% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied by 2.8%. European markets also registered good gains across the board.
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